[IMS RESEARCH: 2012年Video Surveillanc 10大趨勢]
The following 10 video surveillance predictions for 2012 serve to provide
some guidance on the key trends and opportunities in each of these areas, which
you might find useful in planning for the year ahead.
1.REFOCUSING ON IMAGE
QUALITYWe forecast that by 2015, more than 70 percent of all
network camera shipments will be of megapixel resolution. In spite of this, over
the last 12 months, manufacturers have continued to push for greater numbers of
megapixels. This trend plays to the common misconception that more
megapixels/more resolution equates to better image quality. However, video
quality is dependent on factors other than the number of megapixels on the
sensor, such as the lens and image processing. IMS believes that for the vast
majority of manufacturers, there will be a renewed focus on image quality in
2012.
To date, the market opportunity for ?igh-megapixel??cameras remains
relatively niche. Manufacturers will need to further develop their points of
differentiation. Likely advancements will be in well-established areas of need,
such as low-light capability and wide-dynamic range; we will also see increasing
adoption of P-iris lens technology and advances in live video.
2.FROM THE BRICS TO
CIVETSGiven the Eurozone crisis that looks to potentially
dampen global economic growth in 2012, where will video surveillance suppliers
find opportunities for growth in the coming year?
Over the last few years, the BRICs have been the countries of choice for
video surveillance vendors seeking new growth opportunities. Unlike the more
developed markets in EMEA and North America, the BRICs were far less impacted by
the recent economic downturn. IMS estimates that the total video surveillance
equipment market in the BRICs was worth more than US$2.5 billion in 2010. With a
growth rate exceeding 20 percent for the next two years, the BRICs will continue
to offer video surveillance vendors solid growth opportunities, as the more
established and mature video surveillance markets feel the impact from a
potential second downturn. Beyond the BRICs, where should companies seek out new
growth opportunities? The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey
and South Africa) are being touted as the next set of tiger economies due to
their rapidly industrializing economies. The indicators appear promising as the
current long-term GDP rate for the CIVETS is in line with that for the BRICs.
In terms of spending on video surveillance equipment, the CIVETS are a minnow
when compared to the BRICs. However, in the mid- to long-term, as infrastructure
development and social mobility increase, the CIVETS will provide a strong
opportunity for growth. In terms of market size, the CIVETS will not overtake
the BRICs for many years, if at all; however, IMS believes that manufacturers
will begin to explore the long-term growth potential of the CIVETS in 2012.
3.HD OVER COAXSo, what are
the three key things that need to happen in 2012 to give HD-over-coax (focusing
on HD-SDI only) equipment a platform for growth?
A.STANDARDIZATIONFor HD over
coax to penetrate the existing analog market, multivendor/brand compatibility is
a must. Currently, there is little standardization among HD-SDI video
surveillance equipment.
B.STORAGE COSTHD-SDI cameras
transmit uncompressed HD video which can lead to high storage requirements and
cost. For HD-SDI to breach the mainstream analog purchasing market, the price of
storage needs to fall. Additionally, the supply of HD-over-coax compression ICs
is effectively an oligopoly, as the market is perceived as niche and does not
yet warrant other manufacturers entering the fray.
C.MARKET
EDUCATIONManufacturers need to engage the correct market
segments and promote HD-over-coax products as a potential alternative to analog
or network video surveillance solutions.
IMS predicts that manufacturers will continue to push HD-over-coax equipment
to the end user, increasing availability and choice. With the backing from large
vendors, it is increasingly likely that a number of other large video
surveillance brands will begin to introduce some form of HD-over-coax products
into their portfolios in 2012. As with last year's predictions, we do not
believe that 2012 will herald an explosion in demand for HD over coax. However,
IMS forecasts that the HD-over-coax category will still see strong growth, with
the market size nearly doubling, as increasing numbers of manufacturers begin to
push this technology forward. [NextPage]
4.ANALYTICS TO THE EDGEIMS
predicts that in the coming years, the types of applications that can be
performed at the edge on the device's main processor will increase. This will
mainly be driven by the availability of more powerful processors and partly by
the refinement of VCA applications to make them less processor-intensive.
Basic analytics will become standard features, and more advanced, ?aid
for??analytics will be performed at the edge. Over time, an increasing variety
of analytics will be added as standard features, at no extra cost to the
customer. Moreover, more powerful processors will enable multiple VCA algorithms
to be performed at the same time to improve detection capabilities.
VCA is increasingly being used outside of the security realm, such as driver
assistance cameras and interactive gaming consoles (such as Microsoft's Kinect).
Some of these new markets for VCA offer high-volume potential, which is
attracting the attention of chip makers.
5.MORE M&A
ACTIVITYDespite the economic turmoil, M&A activity in
the security industry has continued over the last couple of years. However,
video surveillance acquisitions have not been at the forefront of these deals;
generally, M&A activity has been on a much smaller scale. Most recently,
March Networks announced its plans to be acquired by Infinova in a deal worth
around $90 million.
IMS' annual report on the global video surveillance equipment market
estimated that the market in 2010 was worth more than $9 billion in 2010, with
nearly 40 percent of all sales contributed by the top 15. We forecast that
network video surveillance equipment sales will exceed 25 percent in 2012,
despite uncertainty in the Eurozone. While we will not see a spate of
billion-dollar deals in 2012, it is likely that a greater volume of midsized
deals will complete in the next 12 months.
6.LOOKING UP TO THE CLOUDAt
the end of 2010, IMS forecast the increased traction of cloud-based video
surveillance, also known as VSaaS. The market certainly picked up in 2011, with
notable sales growth of around 20 to 30 percent. However, the market is still
emerging, developing and evolving. IMS believes that there are a number of
potential avenues for suppliers of VSaaS to explore in the coming year.
A majority of the security cameras used in small and midsized enterprises are
solely used for security reasons. However, some of the more tech-savvy users are
beginning to leverage and monetize video from their existing systems. Rather
than simply leaving video dormant on a hard-disk drive (HDD), business owners
could post or stream video to the Internet, allowing customers to see real-time
footage of the place they intend to visit. Video could be integrated with
Groupon, TripAdvisor, Yelp or even Google Street View. Prior investment in
security equipment could be transformed from an expense to a revenue-generating
tool. IMS estimates that nearly 65 percent of the DVRs sold in 2011 were
Ethernet-enabled, demonstrating the potential market for video to be distributed
to the cloud and used for nonsecurity purposes.
7.TURNING POINT FOR SPINNING
DISKSThe average price of HDDs has been falling for more
than two decades. Now faced with the consequences of the recent flooding in
Thailand, the video surveillance storage industry could well see the effects of
a change to this trend.
The reported extent of the disruption to HDD production differs from vendor
to vendor. Official statements of predicted price increases vary from 0 to 180
percent. The net result for 2012 is likely to be a softening to the trend of
falling storage prices.
8.VMS, NOT AS WE KNOW IT IMS predicts that 2012
will see a raft of innovation in the VMS space, as vendors attempt to stave off
the threat of commoditization.
For the more established VMS vendors to continue to enjoy the historic high
growth rates, they need to accomplish two key things: (1) maintain and increase
presence in the upper market tier and (2) grow in the middle and lower tiers of
the market.
The key selling feature of many VMS systems has been ?penness,??and while
the ability to integrate to a broad range of video surveillance brands is still
desirable, this has become more of a basic expectation. IMS believes that VMS
vendors will work on the following innovations in the next 12 months.
A.USER INTERFACEWhile
different VMS solutions do contain unique features, user interfaces in general
are fairly similar. Manufacturers will seek to develop simpler and more
intuitive user interfaces in the coming year.
B.MOBILE
APPLICATIONSApplications for mobile platforms, such as iOS
and Android, will be the front of many VMS manufacturers' arsenal in the coming
year. The market for mobile video surveillance applications is still relatively
immature; this is true for both the technology and the market demand. Simple
concepts, such as leveraging location services, would provide enhanced user
experience.
C.SITUATIONAL AWARENESSThe
integration between access control and video surveillance systems has been a
well-trodden path in the last few years, and this trend will persist through
2012. VMS vendors will look to further develop their offerings from pure-play
VMS platforms to security management platforms. VMS vendors have already sought
to bridge the gap between supply and demand for situational awareness by
implementing ?SIM-like??features in their platforms (such as enhanced
functionality with Google or Esri maps). IMS believes that 2012 will see an
acceleration of this trend. [NextPage]
9.BEYOND H.264H.264 has
become the de facto compression technology for video surveillance systems.
However, a combination of factors in 2012 could lead to advancements in video
surveillance compression: (1) the flooding in Thailand; (2) the global economic
climate; and (3) the phenomenal growth of HD and megapixel cameras.
In 2012, shipments of HD and megapixel cameras are forecast to increase by
more than 70 percent, compared with the previous year. While the accelerated
proliferation of high-resolution security cameras provides end users with
benefits, such as greater clarity when viewing live video, the storage costs can
be significant due to the larger file sizes. Some of the potential compression
alternatives are as follows.
A.H.264 SVCWhile there are
many different variants of H.264 available on the market, the scalable video
coding (SVC) variety, despite being well-established in other industries, is
still not commonplace in the video surveillance industry. The key benefits of
the SVC variant include a reduction in bandwidth (leading to a reduction in
storage requirement) and dynamically resizable video.
B.WEBMAn open and
royalty-free video compression format based on VP8, it is debatable whether WebM
is more efficient or performs better than H.264. However, WebM is optimized for
HTML5 video, which could be a key consideration in VSaaS applications. The
stumbling block is that WebM currently does not have an associated real-time
streaming protocol.
C.HEVCHigh-efficiency video
coding (HEVC) is still under development and is seen to be the evolution of
H.264, providing increased compression efficiency. Ratification of this new
standard is not scheduled until late 2012/ early 2013.
So, what will happen in 2012? It would be fair to say the video surveillance
industry is not on the cutting edge of technology advancements in video
compression. Longer term, HEVC is perhaps the most likely successor to H.264,
but that will depend on just how much better it performs and its suitability for
video surveillance applications.
10.INTERNET OF THINGS IN CHINAOne trend which is
unlikely to have a big impact on the video surveillance market in 2012 but will
receive more publicity and have a longer-term impact is the Internet of Things
(IoT).
IoT is a concept in which individual objects are electronically identified
and categorized virtually in an Internet-like structure. To be identified, such
objects need to contain a tag such as an RFID tag. Once categorized, supply
could more easily meet demand, waste would be reduced, and it would be possible
to find objects when they become lost.
IoT is receiving a lot of attention in China. The Chinese central government
is strategically focusing on the development of seven emerging industries. These
industries are expected to enjoy preferential policy treatment in a number of
respects. New generation of information technology (NGIT) is one of these
industries; and IoT is one of the most important parts of NGIT.
China has installed millions of video surveillance cameras over the past 10
years, and these cameras could provide a source of information to verify the
categorization of objects for IoT. It is questionable whether IoT will drive new
investment into security cameras. However, the expected benefits of IoT will
help justify public expenditure on video surveillance equipment.
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